05/06/2020 - SPCITY OF GRAND TERRACE
CITY COUNCIL
AGENDA ● MAY 6, 2020
Council Chambers Special Meeting 6:00 PM
Grand Terrace Civic Center ● 22795 Barton Road
City of Grand Terrace Page 1
PUBLIC ADVISORY: THE CITY COUNCIL CHAMBER WILL NOT BE OPEN TO THE PUBLIC
Pursuant to Section 3 of Executive Order N-29-20, issued by Governor Newsom on March
17, 2020, the Special Meeting of the City Council for May 6, 2020 will be conducted
telephonically through Zoom and broadcast live on the City’s website. Please be advised that
pursuant to the Executive Order, and to ensure the health and safety of the public by limiting
human contact that could spread the COVID-19 virus, the Council Chamber will not be open
for the meeting. Some Members of Council will be participating remotely and will not be
physically present in the Council Chamber.
If you would like to speak on an agenda item, you can access the meeting by dialing the phone
number listed below and you will be placed in the waiting room, muted until it is your turn to
speak:
*67 1-669-900-9128
Enter Meeting ID: 898 7636 6098
Password: 364349
NOTE: Your phone number will appear on the screen unless you first dial *67 before
dialing the numbers as shown above.
The City wants you to know that you can also submit your comments by email to
ccpubliccomment@grandterrace-ca.gov. To give the City Clerk adequate time to print out
your comments for consideration at the meeting, please submit your written comments prior
to 5:00 p.m.; or if you are unable to email, please call the City Clerk’s Office at (909) 824-
6621 ext. 230 by 5:00 p.m.
If you wish to have your comments read to the Council Members during the appropriate Public
Comment period, please indicate on in the Subject Line “FOR PUBLIC COMMENT” and
list the item number you wish to comment on. Comments that you want read to the
Council will be subject to the three minute time limitation (approximately 350 words).
Pursuant to the Executive Order, and in compliance with the Americans with Disabilities Act, if
you need special assistance to participate in the Council meeting, please contact the City
Clerk’s Office, (909) 824-6621 ext. 230 within 48 hours of the meeting.
The City of Grand Terrace thanks you in advance for taking all precautions to prevent
spreading the COVID-19 virus.
Agenda Grand Terrace City Council May 6, 2020
City of Grand Terrace Page 2
CALL TO ORDER
Convene City Council.
PLEDGE OF ALLEGIANCE
ROLL CALL
Attendee Name Present Absent Late Arrived
Mayor Darcy McNaboe
Mayor Pro Tem Doug Wilson
Council Member Sylvia Robles
Council Member Bill Hussey
Council Member Jeff Allen
A. RECESS TO CLOSED SESSION
CLOSED SESSION
1. CONFERENCE WITH LABOR NEGOTIATORS, pursuant to Government Code
Section 54956.6
Agency Designated
Representatives: G. Harold Duffey, City Manager
Cynthia Fortune, Assistant City Manager
Adrian R. Guerra, City Attorney
Colin Tanner, Deputy City Attorney
Employee Organization: Teamsters Local 1932
Unrepresented Employees: City Manager, Assistant City Manager, City Clerk,
Director of Public Works, Director of Planning &
Development Services, Management Analyst, (Two
Positions), Assistant Planner
RECONVENE TO OPEN SESSION
REPORT OUT OF CLOSED SESSION
B. PUBLIC COMMENT
This is the opportunity for members of the public to comment on items on the agenda
only. At a special meeting of the City Council, pursuant to California law, the City
Council will only be taking public comment on items listed on the agenda.
Agenda Grand Terrace City Council May 6, 2020
City of Grand Terrace Page 3
C. NEW BUSINESS
2. Consideration of the City Manager’s Proposed Revenue Enhancements and
Expenditure Reduction Plan for the General Fund FY 2019-20 and FY 2020-21
Budgets, Including Proposed Layoffs of City Personnel
RECOMMENDATION:
1. Review and approve the City Manager’s proposed Revenue Enhancement and
Expenditure Reduction Plan for the General Fund FY 2019-20 and FY 2020-21
budgets, which includes the use of City General fund reserves (rainy Day fund),
layoffs, reductions in contract and professional services and use of key indicators to
strategically expand post COVID-19, and authorize the City Manager to implement;
and
2. Approve the proposed layoffs of City personnel listed in the Revenue Enhancement
and Expenditure Reduction Plan as permitted under Section 15.4 of the City’s
adopted Personnel Rules and Regulations.
DEPARTMENT: FINANCE
3. FY2020-21 Budget Development Guidelines and Budget Schedule
RECOMMENDATION:
Approve the FY2020-21 Budget Development Guidelines and Proposed Budget Review
Schedule.
DEPARTMENT: FINANCE
D. ADJOURN
The Next Regular City Council Meeting will be held on Tuesday, May 12, 2020 at 6:00
PM. Any request to have an item placed on a future agenda must be made in writing
and submitted to the City Clerk’s office and the request will be processed in accordance
with Council Procedures.
AGENDA REPORT
MEETING DATE: May 6, 2020 Council Item
TITLE: Consideration of the City Manager’s Proposed Revenue
Enhancements and Expenditure Reduction Plan for the
General Fund FY2019/20 and FY2020/21 Budgets, Including
Proposed Layoffs of City Personnel
PRESENTED BY: Cynthia Fortune, Assistant City Manager
RECOMMENDATION: 1. Review and approve the City Manager’s proposed
Revenue Enhancement and Expenditure Reduction Plan for
the General Fund FY 2019/20 and FY 2020/21 budgets,
which includes the use of City General fund reserves (rainy
Day fund), layoffs, reductions in contract and professional
services and use of key indicators to strategically expand
post COVID-19, and authorize the City Manager to
implement; and
2. Approve the proposed layoffs of City personnel listed
in the Revenue Enhancement and Expenditure Reduction
Plan as permitted under Section 15.4 of the City’s adopted
Personnel Rules and Regulations.
2030 VISION STATEMENT:
This staff report supports City Council Goal #1, “Ensure Our Fiscal Viability,” through
the continuous monitoring of revenue receipts and expenditure disbursements against
approved budget appropriations, to ensure that COVID-19 pandemic related activities
do not further impact the General Fund reserves.
BACKGROUND:
On April 28, 2020, City Council declared a fiscal emergency due to the effect of the
COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic has potential drastic results on the City’s General
Fund operating budget. The League of California Cities (League) is expecting California
cities to face severe revenue shortfalls and increased emergency costs due to the
impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The League has stated that 9 out of 10 cities project
that these shortfalls will lead to service cuts or furloughs and layoffs, and nearly 3 in 4
cities report that they may need to take both actions.
California cities are projecting a nearly $7 billion general revenue shortfall over the next
two fiscal years, and the shortfall will grow by billions of dollars if COVID-19 pandemic
stay-at-home orders extend into the summer months and beyond.
C.2
Packet Pg. 4
While retail and other major sectors were impacted by the Governor’s Executive order,
the City stayed open for business to further advance projects identified in the City
Council’s Priority Project List. Development projects and related applications continue to
be processed for Domino’s Pizza, Taco Bell, Surgical Center, Grocery Outlet, La
Michoacana, and Edwin Fuels. These businesses will collectively generate tens of
thousands of future sales taxes if subsequently approved for operation.
DISCUSSION:
As with other cities, Grand Terrace is not immune to the COVID-19 pandemic. At the
April 28, 2020 City Council meeting, City staff presented the General Fund’s FY2019-20
Year-end Projection, reflecting an overall decrease in revenues of ($650,127), resulting
in a deficit of ($545,210). In addition, staff also provided FY2020-21 revenue and
expense projections, with that year resulting in an increased deficit of ($1,116,387 -
revised).
However, with the implementation of the Revenue Enhancement and Expenditure
Reduction Plan (Attachment) and the use of $450,000 of the reserve, staff believes the
FY 2019-20 and the FY 2020-21 deficits can be addressed by utilization of reserves
approved by Council on April 28, 2020. Yet, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic has
eliminated the City‘s track record of six consecutive years of sustainable budget cycles
(chart attachment).
The Revenue Enhancement and Expenditure Reduction Plan was developed to
minimize the General Fund revenue shortfall’s impacts on core city services, including
police, planning (economic development) and preservation of quality of life.
Revenue Projects
Staff originally used conservative assumptions to provide the year-end revenue
projections for FY 2019-2020 and revenue for FY 2020-21 because of declines in sales
taxes, business taxes, licenses, fees, permit fees, charges for services, property
transfer fees attribute to additional revenue losses.
Sales Tax: Originally, when City staff projected the loss in sales taxes, this was based
on a conservative assumption that most activity will return to normal at the beginning of
the 2nd Quarter in FY2020-21 (October); however, since other states have started to
ease their “stay-at-home” orders, California is expected to follow suit. Staff has since
revised the sales taxes estimate, assuming activity returning by July 1st, three (3)
months earlier than originally projected, increasing the annual sales tax projection to
$675,000 in FY2019-20 (increase of $75,000) and $725,000 in FY2020-21 (increase of
$125,000).
Additional revenue enhancements include potential FEMA reimbursements, Community
Development Block Grant (CDBG-CV) from the CARES Act; saving in
professional/contractual services and deferrals and restructuring of loan terms. Staff will
C.2
Packet Pg. 5
need to monitor these assumptions very close, during the next fiscal year.
City staff reviewed expenditure reductions based on mandatory, essential and
discretionary services (including personnel) in the General Fund. The City’s Municipal
Code and Personnel Rules & Regulations require that City Council make the initial
layoff decision “whenever it becomes necessary in the interest of economy or because
the necessity for the position or employment involved no longer exists.” Specifically,
layoffs are governed by Section 15.4 of the City’s Personnel Rules and Regulations:
Whenever, in the judgment of the City Council, it becomes necessary to
abolish any position, the employee holding such position or employment
may be laid off or demoted without disciplinary action and without the right
of appeal. City employees shall not have bumping rights.
(a) Order of Layoffs - The City shall consider seniority, evaluation
rating and the needs of the City to determine the order of layoffs.
Below is a summary of revenue enhancement and budget reductions, each of which is
detailed in Attachment A:
City of Grand Terrace
Revenue / Expenditure Reduction Plan
Budget
2019-20
Projected
Adjustments
Year-End
Projection
Projection
2020-21
PROJECTED REVENUES $5,977,197 ($650,127) $5,327,070 $5,171,340
PROJECTED EXPENDITURES ($5,981,134) $108,854 ($5,872,280) ($5,872,270)
NET ($3,937) ($541,273) ($545,210) ($700,930)
Additional Expenditures
1. Sheriff's Amendment #27 (Schedule A) $0 ($136,457)
2. Increase in Accrued Liability (UAL) $0 ($185,000)
3. Debt Services payment to Wastewater
(REVISED) $0 ($94,000)
PROJECTED DEFICIT ($545,210) ($1,116,387)
Revenue Adjustments
1. INCREASE IN SALES TAX $75,000 $125,000
Proposed Expenditure Reductions
PERSONNEL REDUCTIONS
2. Management Analyst $10,430 $90,690
3. Maintenance Worker II (60% Gen. Fund): 2 positions $7,410 $77,090
4. Executive Assistant $9,965 $82,210
C.2
Packet Pg. 6
City of Grand Terrace
Revenue / Expenditure Reduction Plan
Budget
2019-20
Projected
Adjustments
Year-End
Projection
Projection
2020-21
5. Office Specialist (75% Gen. Fund) $5,350 $44,995
6. Department Secretary $12,730 $76,370
7. Code Enf/Animal Ctrl Sp (20-hour week) $4,745 $28,480
8. PW Director to Sr. Engineer (35% Gen. Fund) $3,935 $23,610
$54,565 $423,445
9. ADD’L PROF./CONTRACTUAL SVCS $18,000 $107,500
REIMBURSEMENTS/GRANTS
10. FEMA Reimb. For COVID activities $40,000 $40,000
11. CDBG-CV Allocation $0 $100,000
$40,000 $140,000
REQUEST TO DEFER CERTAIN OBLIGATIONS
12. Sheriff’ Increase – defer to 2021-22 $0 $136,357
13. Wastewater Debt Svc – defer to 2021-22 $0 $94,000
$0 $230,357
REVISED PROJECTED DEFICIT ($357,645) ($90,085)
TOTAL FUND BALANCE PROJECTED TO BE USED OVER 2 YEARS $446,830
FISCAL IMPACT:
The City's immediate and significant loss of revenue due to the COVID-19 pandemic
and the related local, state and federal orders is unprecedented and represents a
sudden change of circumstances beyond the City's control. At this time, City staff is
recommending approval of the Revenue Enhancement and Expenditure reduction plan
as summarized above.
ATTACHMENTS:
• Revenue Enhancements and Expenditure Reduction Plan #1 (PDF)
APPROVALS:
Cynthia A. Fortune Completed 05/05/2020 11:27 AM
C.2
Packet Pg. 7
Finance Completed 05/05/2020 11:27 AM
City Attorney Completed 05/05/2020 5:10 PM
City Manager Completed 05/05/2020 5:14 PM
City Council Pending 05/06/2020 6:00 PM
C.2
Packet Pg. 8
City of Grand Terrace
REVENUE ENHANCEMENT & EXPENDITURE REDUCTION PLAN
May 6, 2020
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 9
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
Page | 2
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Expenditure Reduction Plan was developed to constrict the organization by
systematically examining the most cost-effective way to deliver core services, maintain operating hours and remain fiscally solvent. The Expenditure Reduction Plan includes:
• Use of City General Fund Reserves (Rainy Day Fund),
• Layoffs,
• Reductions in contract and professional services and;
• Key indicators to strategically expand post COVID-19
The City of Grand Terrace projected a revenue shortfall of approximately $650,000 in FY 2019-20 and $800,000 in FY 2020-21 due to the COVID-19 Pandemic, resulting in almost $1,500,000 in revenue loss over a two-year period.
Table 1
Fiscal Year Projected Revenue Loss
2019-20 $650,127
2020-21 $805,757
$1,455,884
The Expenditure Reduction Plan will utilize approximately $450,000 of the General Fund Balance (Rainy Day Fund), capture the following revenue enhancements and expense reductions: Table 2
Description Revenue & Expense Adjustments
1. Increase in Sales Tax $75,000
2. Personnel Reductions $478,010
3. Additional Prof./Cont. Services $125,500
4. Reimbursements / Grants $140,000
5. Request / Proposal to defer certain obligations $230,357
$1,048,867
Staff believes no additional revenues will be needed from the General Fund Reserves (Rainy Day Fund). The next table shows the amount of reserves that will be used in each fiscal year.
Table 3
Fiscal Year Projected Use of Fund Balance
2019-20 $357,645
2020-21 $90,085
$446,830
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 10
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
Page | 3
The City Council authorized the use of up to $450,000 in General Fund Reserves for FY 2019-20. The Expenditure Rection Plan identifies the use of General Fund Reserves needed for FY 2019-20 and FY 2020-21, without exceeding the authorized allocation.
The Expenditure Reduction Plan was developed to constrict the organization to provide essential core services within the City’s fiscal ability. The Expenditure Reduction Plan’s methodology is to:
• Preserve public safety and;
• Gradual reduction in general services and;
• Preservation of business transactions The steps above will ensure COVID-19 related staffing reductions do not harm or stymie the economic development strategies identified in the Council’s Priority Projects or
diminish the productivity of remaining staff.
Table 4
Position Type Total Authorized Proposed Reduction Remaining Staff
1. Management Analyst 2 (1) 1
2. Maintenance Worker Series 4 (2) 2
3. Administrative Support 4 (3) 1
4. Code Enforcement Series 2 (1) 1
TOTAL 12 (7) 5
While the Expenditure Reduction Plan surgically constricts and retains a workforce with
a minimum 40-hour workweek, it is also designed to be elastic, for post COVID-19. The
City is positioned to expand its workforce and increase its services based on the following:
• The date the economy reopens
• June 30, 2020 update of revenue estimates
• Economic assistance from either the county, state or federal government
Staff will report new or increased revenues to the City Council, to receive policy direction
to reduce use of General Fund Reserves and/or expand the delivery of service.
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 11
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
Page | 4
Background
On March 19, 2020, the Governor issued Executive Order N-33-20 directing a Stay-At-
Home Order as issued by the California Public Health Officer from the California
Department of Health. The City reviewed its operations and determined the services
delivered fell within the 16 critical infrastructure vital services as identified by the Federal
Government and modified its operations at City facilities. On March 20, 2020, the City
closed its parks, City Hall lobby, suspended parking enforcement on street sweeping days
and provided grace periods on code related issues. These actions, while prudent, are
expected to impact revenue
The League of California Cities is projecting that cities will lose $7 billion dollars in
revenue. While cities will be impacted differently based on the type of taxes and business
within their community, it is evident that the COVID-19 Pandemic has seriously impacted
our local government revenues.
Table 5
City of Grand Terrace
FY2019-2020 Year-End Projection and 2020-21 Possible Scenarios
Budget Projected Adjustments Year-End Projection
Exp
%
Year-
End
Proj
Projection-1 2020-21
Exp
%
Year-
End
Proj
Projection-2
2020-21
Exp
%
Year-
End
Proj
REVENUES
Property Tax $1,971,250 ($79,990) $1,891,260 -4% $1,796,000 -9% $1,478,440 -25% Residual Receipts - RPTTF $1,442,400 $610 $1,443,010 0% $1,500,000 4% $1,081,800 -25%
Franchise Fees $534,790 ($97,260) $437,530 -18% $445,000 -17% $401,100 -25% Licenses, Fees & Permits $456,510 ($127,420) $329,090 -28% $329,090 -28% $342,400 -25%
Sales Tax $785,400 ($185,370) $600,030 -24% $600,000 -24% $589,050 -25%
Intergovernmental Revenue/Grants $26,500 ($2,790) $23,710 -11% $20,000 -25% $19,880 -25% Charges for Services $207,900 ($127,600) $80,300 -61% $80,300 -61% $155,940 -25% Fines & Forfeitures $72,500 ($20,410) $52,090 -28% $35,100 -52% $54,380 -25%
Miscellaneous $15,148 ($14,638) $510 -97% $0 $11,360 -25%
Use of Money & Property $62,000 $4,740 $66,740 8% $47,500 -23% $46,500 -25%
Transfers In $84,450 $0 $84,450 0% $0 $63,340 -25% Wastewater Receipts $318,349 $1 $318,350 0% $318,350 0% $238,760 -25%
TOTAL
REVENUES $5,977,197 ($650,127) $5,327,070 -11% $5,171,340 -13% $4,482,950 -25%
EXPENDITURES
Salaries $1,246,881 $10,129 $1,257,010 -1% $1,257,030 1% $1,257,030 1%
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 12
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
Page | 5
City of Grand Terrace
FY2019-2020 Year-End Projection and 2020-21 Possible Scenarios
Budget Projected Adjustments Year-End Projection
Exp
%
Year-
End
Proj
Projection-1 2020-21
Exp
%
Year-
End
Proj
Projection-2
2020-21
Exp
%
Year-
End
Proj
Benefits $842,690 ($15,420) $827,270 2% $827,290 -2% $827,290 -2% Professional/Cont. Services $3,463,996 ($133,266) $3,330,730 4% $3,330,690 -4% $3,330,690 -4% Materials & Supplies $236,217 $19,523 $255,740 -8% $255,730 8% $255,730 8%
Lease of Facility/Equipment $8,000 $11,320 $19,320 <100% $19,320 <100% $19,320 <100%
Utilities $145,000 ($1,140) $143,860 1% $143,860 -1% $143,860 -1% Overhead Cost Allocation ($87,450) $0 ($87,450) 0% ($87,450) 0% ($87,450) 0%
Transfers Out $125,800 $0 $125,800 0% $125,800 0% $125,800 0%
TOTAL
EXPENDITURES $5,981,134 ($108,854) $5,872,280 2% $5,872,270 -2% $5,872,270 -2%
REVENUE & EXPENDITURE SUMMARY
REVENUES $5,977,197 ($650,127) $5,327,070 -11% $5,171,340 -13% $4,482,950 -25%
EXPENDITURES ($5,981,134) $108,854 ($5,872,280) 2% ($5,872,270) -2% ($5,872,270) -2%
NET ($3,937) ($541,273) ($545,210) ($700,930) ($1,389,320)
Additional Expenditures to consider in FY2020-21
1. Sheriff's Amendment #27 (Schedule A increase) ($136,457) ($136,457) 2. Absorption of former Child Care program's Unfunded Accrued Liability (UAL) portion ($150k) & overall UAL increase ($30k) ($185,000) ($185,000) 3. Annual Debt Service payment to Wastewater Fund for $900,000 Loan (REVISED) ($94,000) ($108,000)
POTENTIAL DEFICIT ($1,116,387) ($1,818,777)
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 13
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
Page | 6
Cities are addressing the issues in many ways, some cities are using their reserves, while
others are immediately laying off or not hiring temporary employees and discussing
layoffs and furloughs of permanent employees to address pending revenue shortfalls.
We never received any official notice, when the Stay-At-Home Order would be lifted, but
most people thought that after two weeks the economy would reopen. In April people
optimistically said May 1. Now that we are in May, economist are hopeful the economy
will gradually start to reopen in June (Attachment I). While City Hall’s Lobby was closed
the City was able to continue to support City Priority Projects like Domino’s new location,
Taco Bell, Surgical Center, Grocery Outlet, La Michoacana, and Edwin Fuels, which
collectively may generate tens of thousands of future sales tax. We are making progress
as Governor Newsom established a Resilience Roadmap for California to reopen. It has
four stages that will guide the reopening of our economy. We are currently at Stage 1
(Attachment II).
Expenditure Reduction Plan
As the economy continued to linger with city facilities closed, the City could no longer
continue to retain its current level of expense without it having a significant impact on its
bottom line. It is projected that the City of Grand Terrace is facing an estimated $545,210
shortfall for FY 2019-20 and a projected $1,116,387 for FY 2020-21. The Expenditure
Reduction Plan was developed to surgically correct operational losses, deliver services
within fiscal means and strategically address fiscal deficits. The Expenditure Reduction
Plan calls for the reduction in staff through layoffs:
Table 6
PERSONNEL REDUCTIONS FY2019-20 FY2020-21
1. Management Analyst $10,430 $90,690
2. Maintenance Worker II (60% Gen. Fund): 2 positions $7,410 $77,090
3. Executive Assistant $9,965 $82,210
4. Office Specialist (75% Gen. Fund) $5,350 $44,995
5. Department Secretary $12,730 $76,370
6. Code Enf/Animal Ctrl Sp (20-hour week) $4,745 $28,480
7. PW Director to Sr. Engineer (35% Gen. Fund) $3,935 $23,610
$54,565 $423,445
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 14
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
Page | 7
With the use of up to $450,000 of the General Fund Reserves (Rainy Day Fund), the use
of deferral and restructuring of loans, it is estimated that no additional revenue will be
needed beyond the initial $450,000 for FY 2020-21. While this strategy does have
assumptions that must be closely monitored, it is clear the COVID-19 Pandemic impact
on the City’s finances is significant and pushes our annual fiscal health to unsustainable
for this year, with a possibility of a vulnerable ranking in FY 2021.
Table 7
The Expenditure Reduction Plan was developed to constrict the organization to provide
essential core services within the City’s fiscal ability. The impacts of the layoffs identified
within this plan can be examined in the attached impact sheets (Attachment III)
The development of the Expenditure Reduction Plan by staff, applied Section 15.4 in its
considered method of reducing the workforce (Section 15.4 of the Personnel Rules &
Employee Benefits states the City shall consider seniority, evaluation rating and the
needs of the City to determine the order of layoffs). Public safety, and business
transactions were also factors considered in the development of the Expenditure
Reduction Plan as we did not want to make cuts because of the COVID-19 Pandemic
that would stymie economic development strategies identified in the Council’s Priority
Projects (Attachment IV).
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 15
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
Page | 8
The Expenditure Reduction Plan is also a fiscally prudent approach to resources
allocation and service demand. Based on the current climate, the City’s standard
operations is built to provide a level of service that we are unable to deliver, because of
access to our facilities or access to our customers. Therefore, a reduction in those
services is warranted. The action the City is taking with layoffs is a sound business
decision. This is an opportunity to constrict, save resources and expand when the
economy recovers.
Alternatives
We are aware that there are many ways to achieve the same level of savings; some
communities will use the layoff method, while others may furlough their employees as a
temporary measure in hopes the economy will turn around. The Expenditure Reduction Plan was developed without furloughs because of the City’s long history with furloughs, frozen merit increases and no COLAs. In addition, the City was in the midst of a classification study to review our salaries which was a significant issue during recent
employee exit interviews. Therefore, the Expenditure Reduction Plan was developed to
retain as many employees as possible to continue core services. When we examined the percentage of furlough hours needed to equal the amount of savings in the layoff, we felt the cuts would be so deep it would significantly impact days of operation and employee morale.
However, if the City Council wanted to consider furloughs and salary reductions to equal the savings of layoffs, the following information should be reviewed:
• To furlough the entire staff, the City needs to understand and address that it has
both overtime non-exempt employees and exempt employees. A broad-brush approach will not have the same implications to the “share the pain” philosophy that is sometimes used in a furlough approach. Furloughing everyone will result in the City losing its ability to have exempt employees work until the work is done
during the weeks in which they are furloughed. Pursuant to the Fair Labor
Standards Act (FLSA), overtime exempt employees will be eligible for compensation for every hour they work beyond their stated furlough hours and overtime for every hour in excess of 40 in a workweek (Attachment V).
• Another way to achieve salary savings equal to the proposed layoffs would be to
furlough non-exempt employees but reduce the salary of the overtime exempt employees. However, your non-exempt employees would still be allowed overtime and be eligible for unemployment, while your exempt employees would not. The exempt employees would still be obligated to work until the work is done,
regardless of any stated reduced workweek.
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 16
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
Page | 9
The Chart below identifies the various scenarios considered before staff arrived at its recommendation for layoffs.
Table 8
10%, 20% and 30% Scenarios
Category Salaries Benefits TOTAL
32% CUT
(SAVINGS) To Achieve
Proposed Reductions 10% CUT (SAVINGS) 20% CUT (SAVINGS) 30% CUT (SAVINGS)
Exempt $887,486 $405,832 $1,293,318 $274,805 $88,748 $177,497 $266,247
Non-Exempt $442,896 $256,662 $699,558 $148,640 $44,288 $88,580 $132,866
$1,330,382 $662,494 $1,992,876 $423,445 $133,036 $266,077 $399,113
2 Months Savings
Exempt $45,801 $14,791 $29,583 $44,375
Non-Exempt $24,773 $7,381 $14,763 $22,144
$70,574 $22,173 $44,346 $66,519
Annual Hours 2,080 1,414 1,872 1,664 1,456
Work Week 40 27 36 32 28
Hours per Day 8 hrs 5.4 hrs 7.2 hrs 6.4 hrs 5.6 hrs
Work Schedule 8:00am - 5:00pm 8:00am - 2:20pm 8:00am - 4:15pm 8:00am - 3:20pm 8:00am - 2:30pm *Any reduction in savings due to a lower salary savings from furloughs will result in a need to find additional savings from professional service contracts or General Fund Reserves.
Contractual and Professional Services
As the Council is aware, we are a contract City; some of our major services are provided by contracts and professional services, totaling $3,464,000, with our largest contract being with the Sheriff’s Department at $2,071,535 in FY 2019-20. Not including the Sheriff’s Department contract, we will be reducing the remaining contracts by at least
15%, where service is not detrimental to the quality of life of the City. This strategy yields
a small amount for the remainder of FY 2019-20 but significantly more for the new fiscal year.
Deferrals and Restructuring Loan Terms
To further mitigate the impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic impact on our FY 2020-21 budget, the City will examine strategies to defer or advocate for reduction or elimination of contract increases. In addition, the General Fund has existing internal debt that is due in FY 2020-21 that could be restructured, as the debt is for property that is currently in
escrow. This strategy would assist the City in eliminating the need to use anymore
reserves.
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 17
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
Page | 10
Post COVID-19
With a lean workforce delivering services within its fiscal capabilities, the City will need to
monitor the demand for services and prepare for expansion once the following information
is verified.
• Assistance and reimbursements from FEMA, county, state or national agencies to
backfill revenues equivalent to support gradual or swift expansion of services.
• Updated year-end projections of revenue that exceeded those listed within the Expenditure Reduction Plan, which would allow the City to assume revenues have returned to normal. If this occurs the City should move expeditiously to increase
service levels. The Expenditure Reduction Plan was developed to preserve core services within the City from a business focus, weighing the needs of the organization and its mission to preserve and protect our community and its exceptional quality of life through thoughtful planning,
within the constraints of fiscally responsible government.
Once executed, the expected results of the Expenditure Reduction Plan moves the City’s financial position out of unsustainable into the vulnerable category and the City can start rebuilding its General Fund Reserves up to the expected wo months of expenditures.
Table 9
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 18
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
A CASE FOR THE “V”
THE POST COVID-19 ECONOMY
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 19
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
ABOUT BEACON ECONOMICS, LLC
Founded in 2007, Beacon Economics, an LLC and certified Small Business Enterprise with the state of California, is an
independent research and consulting firm dedicated to delivering accurate, insightful, and objectively based economic
analysis. Leveraging unique proprietary models, vast databases, and sophisticated data processing, the company’s
specialized practice areas include sustainable growth and development, real estate market analysis, economic
forecasting, industry analysis, economic policy analysis, and economic impact studies. Beacon Economics equips
its clients with the data and analysis required to understand the significance of on-the-ground realities and to make
informed business and policy decisions.
Practice Areas:
CONTACT INFORMATION
For further information about this report, or to learn more about Beacon Economics’ practice areas, please contact:
Or visit our website at www.BeaconEcon.com
• Economic, Fiscal and Social Impact Analysis.
• Economic and Revenue Forecasting.
• Regional and Sub-Regional Analysis.
• Housing, Land Use and Real Estate Advisory.
• Litigation and Testimony.
• Sustainable Growth and Development.
SHERIF HANNA
Managing Partner
Sherif@BeaconEcon.com
VICTORIA PIKE BOND
Director of Communications
Victoria@BeaconeEcon.com
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 20
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
3
The good news is that the number of new, confirmed cases of Coronavirus in the United States has, at least for now, peaked
and appears to be falling. Stay-at-home mandates across the nation have been having their intended effect of limiting the
spread of the virus beyond the initial surge. We are far less cognizant, however, of what the full scope of the economic shock
will be, as economic statistics significantly lag public health stats. There is some data for March, but much of the month had
passed before public health closures were widely mandated; hence they don’t tell us much. April numbers won’t start arriving
until early May.
OVERVIEW: IS HYSTERIA THE NEW NORMAL?
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 21
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
4
Regardless, there is little doubt that these health mandated closures will cause a record decline in economic activity in the
second quarter of the year. How much of a guessing game is a wild guessing game right now as there is no historical precedent
for the current crisis and little good data as of yet. Current estimates from a variety of forecasting organizations suggest second
quarter growth could run from -20% to -40%, and we don’t disagree. Those numbers, however, sound far worse than they are
as economists have a habit of reporting GDP statistics in annualized form. This means that the total output of the economy will
contract by -5% to -10% from the first to the second quarter. Still, this is larger than anything experienced in the past.
The real debate is over what comes next. As always, the issue has been boiled down to a spelling bee: will it be a “V” recovery
or a “U”? Or perhaps a “W” and for the true pessimist let’s not forget the dreaded “L”. The broad consensus appears to be “U”—
meaning that there will be little bounce following the record second quarter downturn, after which we’ll have a long painful
climb back to normality. Under this scenario, unemployment will remain elevated well into 2021 if not beyond. Most of the “U”
camp is suggesting a business cycle that is as large or larger than what transpired during the Great Recession.
The problem with these forecasts is that they are leaping to extremely grim conclusions with little basis. While there are many
anecdotes and grim news stories—not to mention the universally odd experience of closed schools and empty highways—
there is very little hard data yet. And we don’t have any recent economic experiences within the developed world to use as a
historical metaphor. All forecasts right now are, at some level, a leap in the dark. But very few seem to acknowledge this even
as they put out extremely negative predictions.
Rather than pretend there is any logical way of building a mathematical model to predict trends in the coming months, in the
outlook below, we boil the question of how this business cycle will look into five basic questions that should determine how
rapidly the economy can bounce back after what will surely be a record second quarter decline. Even cursory answers to these
questions suggest that while a “U” is certainly possible, it is actually a far less likely outcome. There is little reason to think the
economy can’t and won’t, bounce back rapidly—possibly even so rapidly as to call into question whether this entire episode
can be accurately described as a recession as opposed to a national natural disaster.
So why have the bulk of outlooks gone so negative? In truth, it is a relatively typical reaction. In January 2019 the stock
markets were down 20% and the majority of contributors to the Wall Street Journal’s ‘Next Recession’ consensus survey were
predicting a recession within 12 months. Why? The real estate collapse, rising inflation, rising interest rates, and of course
the trade war with China, which was going to do incredible damage to the U.S. manufacturing sector. Of course, none of this
came close to occurring. By April the markets were yet again hitting record high levels. Obviously, the impacts of today’s public
health mandates are substantially more severe than what was happening back then—but the level of hysteria has simply risen
proportionately. This kind of reaction is, unfortunately, the new normal.
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 22
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
5
The one data point that really stands out is the 26 million initial claims for unemployment insurance filed over the five weeks
since the mandated shutdowns went national. In all of 2008 (the Great Recession) there were 22 million initial claims filed.
Never has the nation had so many people out of work and never has it happened so quickly. Worse yet, historical patterns
on unemployment rates are clear: once up they take a long time to fall again. This naturally leads to the conclusion that this
downturn will be worse than the last one.
THIS IS NOT THE GREAT RECESSION
TOTAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
TRAILING 12 MONTHS
40000
20000
25000
5000
0
35000
15000
30000
10000
Ja
n
-
1
9
8
9
Ja
n
-
1
9
9
1
Ja
n
-
1
9
9
5
Ja
n
-
1
9
9
8
Ja
n
-
1
9
9
0
Ja
n
-
1
9
9
4
Ja
n
-
1
9
9
7
Ja
n
-
1
9
9
2
Ja
n
-
1
9
9
6
Ja
n
-
1
9
9
9
Ja
n
-
2
0
0
0
Ja
n
-
2
0
0
0
Ja
n
-
2
0
0
3
Ja
n
-
2
0
0
8
Ja
n
-
2
0
1
5
Ja
n
-
2
0
0
5
Ja
n
-
2
0
1
2
Ja
n
-
2
0
1
0
Ja
n
-
2
0
1
7
Ja
n
-
2
0
1
9
Ja
n
-
2
0
0
1
Ja
n
-
2
0
0
2
Ja
n
-
2
0
0
7
Ja
n
-
2
0
1
4
Ja
n
-
2
0
0
4
Ja
n
-
2
0
0
9
Ja
n
-
2
0
1
6
Ja
n
-
2
0
0
6
Ja
n
-
2
0
1
3
Ja
n
-
2
0
1
1
Ja
n
-
2
0
1
8
Ja
n
-
2
0
2
0
In
i
t
i
a
l
C
l
a
i
m
s
,
S
e
a
s
o
n
a
l
l
y
A
d
j
u
s
t
e
d
(
0
0
0
s
)
Source: U.S. Employment and Training Administration; Analysis by Beacon Economics
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 23
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
6
But there is no similarity to what is happening today and what happened in the lead up to the Great Recession, or to any
recessions in the last sixty years or more, if ever. This means we can’t necessarily use past patterns as a lens to predict the path
ahead.
The Great Recession was driven by a collapse of the massive subprime credit bubble, which formed during the preceding
years and which pumped $15 trillion in new financial and household debt into the economy. This enormous credit inflow
highly overinflated consumer borrowing, and the housing and commercial real estate industries. Easy credit pushed consumer
savings rates to the lowest on record while the resulting consumption binge opened the widest trade deficit in decades.
When it finally became clear that the entire sub-prime lending industry was little more than a giant Ponzi scheme, everything
began to unwind. All those businesses that made billions of dollars during the bubble inflation suddenly lost their ability to
earn a profit. The crash ultimately caused the permanent loss of millions of jobs connected with the bubble. Short of another
bubble, these businesses/jobs were simply unsustainable. The crisis eventually caused the worst downturn since the Great
Depression and the U.S. economy didn’t fully recover until 2015.
What is happening today is nothing like what happened in 2008. The vast majority of people currently applying for
unemployment are being laid off from profitable, sustainable businesses that have been shuttered temporarily as a result of
public health mandates. If a cure for COVID-19 was discovered tomorrow, these mandates would be relaxed quickly, and there
is no reason to think that companies wouldn’t reopen again as viable businesses and bring their employees back to work. What
is happening today amounts to temporary layoffs—not permanent job losses.
The difference between now and then is apparent in the data. When a broad negative shock, such as a collapsing subprime
bubble, hits the economy, employment in a lagging indicator because businesses shut down and lay off employees only as
a last resort. The peak in initial claims for unemployment during the Great Recession occurred in June 2009—the last official
month of the recession. This time around the spike in unemployment has occurred first. As opposed to job losses being the
result of a shock to the system, in this case, they are themselves the shock to the system. But this shock only lasts as long as
the health mandates.
Of course, that should not imply that there are no serious effects. While the world waits for the Coronavirus to be contained
to the point where it is safe to lift the public health mandates, businesses are losing revenues and families are losing income.
This will cause them to fall behind on financial obligations, which can lead to other difficulties such as bankruptcies, defaults,
and business failures. Moreover, the lack of consumer and business spending is sending shock waves through supply chains,
leading to additional lost income and revenues, and more strain. As this continues, true structural damage will begin to build
within the economy—harm that in theory could slow an otherwise rapid return to normalcy. How much damage will ultimately
determine whether the economic trajectory looks like a sharp V or a protracted U.
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 24
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
7
ORGANIZING OUR IGNORANCE
“A good forecaster is not smarter than everyone else,
he merely has his ignorance better organized.”
- Anonymous
To try and tease out what is likely to transpire in the economy in 2020, there are five basic questions that help approximate how
much sustained damage will be generated from the public health related closures. If the answers suggest a lot of harm—then a
slow recovery will be in order. If they don’t suggest sustained harm, then there is no reason to think the economy won’t rapidly
return to normal. When thinking through these questions, we do not necessarily arrive at the conclusion that there will be an
extended contraction of the economy.
1. How long until the public health mandates are lifted?
2. How deep is the current shock to the economy?
3. What is government doing in the meantime to soften the blow?
4. How fragile/healthy was the economy when the pandemic first hit?
5. Will there be permanent significant changes in consumer behavior?
As for the first question, the good news is that the number of new Coronavirus cases appears to have peaked in the United
States as well as in many other hard-hit nations. Some areas are already clamoring to lift certain mandates and even places
like California, which has been very cautious, is beginning to see some partial lifting of controls. ‘Hot spots’ may reemerge in
certain locations, which will slow the process, but remember, we are not the same nation as we were in February when we
were given empty assurances from the Federal government and were blindly going about our lives with little cognition of the
outbreak that was already growing rapidly. This time, the reaction to new outbreaks will be fast and fierce.
NUMBER OF COVID-19 CASES
FEBRUARY 16 TO APRIL 23
40000
20000
25000
5000
0
35000
15000
30000
10000
2/
2
5
/
2
0
2/
2
9
/
2
0
3/
6
/
2
0
3/
1
2
/
2
0
2/
2
7
/
2
0
3/
4
/
2
0
3/
1
0
/
2
0
3/
2
/
2
0
3/
8
/
2
0
3/
1
4
/
2
0
3/
1
6
/
2
0
3/
2
0
/
2
0
3/
2
4
/
2
0
4/
3
/
2
0
4/
1
7
/
2
0
3/
2
8
/
2
0
4/
1
1
/
2
0
4/
7
/
2
0
4/
2
1
/
2
0
3/
1
8
/
2
0
3/
2
2
/
2
0
4/
1
/
2
0
4/
1
5
/
2
0
3/
2
6
/
2
0
4/
5
/
2
0
4/
1
9
/
2
0
3/
3
0
/
2
0
4/
1
3
/
2
0
4/
9
/
2
0
4/
2
3
/
2
0
Ca
s
e
s
Source: New York Times Case Tracker; Analysis by Beacon Economics
New Cases 7-Day Average
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 25
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
8
The best example is China, which is ahead of the rest of the world in both its post-shutdown surge and its control efforts. If the
United States follows roughly the same path, we can expect mandates to start lifting in earnest in late May. Things won’t go
back to normal immediately—either in terms of the mandates being universally relaxed or people returning to public life—but
the process should begin. Certain activities such as large music festivals and conferences may continue to be prohibited but
smaller scale activities should begin to resume. Data from China (again) suggest that production should be back up and running
in about three months while consumer spending will take about four months to return to normalcy. Either way, mandate wise,
expect things to return to normal (mostly) by the third quarter of this year.
How deep is the current shock? Many households and businesses are being denied income because of the public health
mandates. But those who aren’t losing income are being denied the ability to make desired purchases. This will likely lead to a
build-up in demand and financial savings that will give the economy a boost when it reopens. The depth of the current shock
will help us understand the balance between the first and second group.
At this point, we don’t know exactly how deep the current shutdown in economic activity is. The obvious issues are with
restaurants, hotels, airports, travel operations, and a large portion of retail. But these kinds of businesses don’t make up that
large of a share of U.S. GDP. In fact, the closures currently add up to less than 10% of U.S. economic activity in a typical year. Of
course, the shock expands as it works its way into supply chains. This takes time given the basics of inventory pipelines. There
are also productivity impacts as many people are forced to work from home, but again, we have little ability to estimate how
big of an impact.
Gross domestic product
Retail trade
Accommodation and food services
Administrative and support services
Other services, except government
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Oil and gas extraction
Air transportation
Petroleum and coal products
Finance, insurance, real estate
Government
Manufacturing
Professional, scientific
Health care
Information
Management
U.S. GDP CONTRIBUTIONS BY SECTION
Value Added by Sector
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Analysis by Beacon Economics
2019 IV
21729
1190
675
627
464
239
208
152
146
4556
2667
2381
1679
1648
1137
425
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 26
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
9
Notably, we are fortunate to live in an era of connectivity where a large share of retail business has and is shifting to an online
environment. Many restaurants are offering take out and office meetings are being held over Zoom. All of these changes will
continue to expand and help mitigate some of the hits the economy is taking.
In total, we anticipate that the U.S. economy will contract by 7.5% to 10% in the second quarter, an annualized rate of 30% to
40%. This is huge historically, but it also suggests the income hits suffered by this 10% of the economy will be offset by pent up
demand in the balance of the economy.
How about the government Intervention? There has been an unprecedented degree of public support for businesses and
workers who are being negatively impacted. Initial claims for unemployment are up so dramatically in part because the
eligibility has been widened to include many workers who would not have been eligible in 2008. Benefits have been heavily
expanded. In California they can be up to $1100 per week and there have even been anecdotes about employees who prefer
being laid off to working. Additionally, eligible households are getting $1200 per person and small businesses are receiving
forgivable loans to ensure they keep people employed. Billions of dollars more are going to social programs and direct support
for local governments, hospitals, transit, and other services.
The current tally comes $2 trillion plus in government stimulus, which is enormous. The entire U.S. economy is approximately
$22 trillion in size, meaning that on a quarterly basis overall economic activity runs about $5.5 trillion. As the predicted declines
are in the 10% range for the second quarter, that amounts to a half-a-trillion dollar decline, give or take. A $2 trillion stimulus
package is four times the size of this calculated decline. Much of the stimulus will flow straight into the financial markets which
are currently in full swoon—but the remainder will significantly boost demand.
How healthy was the economy when the crisis began? There is little doubt that the pandemic is delivering a significant negative
shock to the supply chain. Even those industries not directly impacted by the health mandates are being disrupted at some
level. But will otherwise profitable businesses collapse into bankruptcy because of a two-month closure? Will mortgages move
into foreclosure due to a couple months of lost income? That all depends on the health of the economy (made up of these
businesses and individuals) when the pandemic started.
The positive news is that the economy is much less fragile now than it has been in the past. Structurally, a lot more of today’s
economy is in services where there is little of the kind of inventory buildup that can create lasting harm during a crisis. Similarly,
the United States is less dependent on global trade than other developed nations, implying that disruptions in global trade
and supply chains are likely to have a smaller impact.
Cyclically the nation is in good shape despite the length of the current expansion. While the recovery from the Great Recession
was long and slow, and overall growth remains slower than in past expansions, the fundamentals of the U.S economy are
fantastic. Pre-COVID-19, unemployment was at a 50-year low and in recent years labor shortages have been a problem in much
of the nation. Both commercial and residential construction have had moderate runs with little sign of excess inventories.
The pacesetter of consumer spending growth has been in travel, recreation, and restaurants. Business investment has been
moderate. In short, nothing appears to be out of balance or due for collapse.
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 27
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
10
PAYROLL JOB GROWTH (Y-O-Y)
UNEMPLOYMENT AND JOB OPENINGS (RATES)
2.5
12.0
0.5
2.0
1.0
6.0
4.0
0.0
0.0
2.0
10.0
1.5
8.0
Ja
n
-
2
0
1
1
Ja
n
-
0
0
Ja
n
-
1
0
Ja
n
-
0
5
Ja
n
-
1
5
Ja
n
-
2
0
1
3
Ja
n
-
2
0
1
5
Ja
n
-
2
0
1
7
Ja
n
-
2
0
1
9
Ja
n
-
2
0
1
2
Ju
l
-
0
2
Ju
l
-
1
2
Ju
l
-
0
7
Ju
l
-
1
7
Ja
n
-
2
0
1
4
Ja
n
-
2
0
1
6
Ja
n
-
2
0
1
8
Ja
n
-
2
0
2
0
Ma
y
-
2
0
1
1
No
v
-
0
0
No
v
-
1
0
No
v
-
0
5
No
v
-
1
5
Ma
y
-
2
0
1
3
Ma
y
-
2
0
1
5
Ma
y
-
2
0
1
7
Ma
y
-
2
0
1
9
Ma
y
-
2
0
1
2
Ma
y
-
0
3
Ma
y
-
1
3
Ma
y
-
0
8
Ma
y
-
1
8
Ma
y
-
2
0
1
4
Ma
y
-
2
0
1
6
Ma
y
-
2
0
1
8
Se
p
-
2
0
1
1
Se
p
-
0
1
Se
p
-
1
1
Se
p
-
0
6
Se
p
-
1
6
Se
p
-
2
0
1
3
Se
p
-
2
0
1
5
Se
p
-
2
0
1
7
Se
p
-
2
0
1
9
Se
p
-
2
0
1
2
Ma
r
-
0
4
Ma
r
-
1
4
Ma
r
-
0
9
Ma
r
-
1
9
Se
p
-
2
0
1
4
Se
p
-
2
0
1
6
Se
p
-
2
0
1
8
Ca
s
e
s
%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Analysis by Beacon Economics
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Analysis by Beacon Economics
Unemployment Rate Job Openings Rate
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 28
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
11
The financial economy, overall, is also healthy. Household savings rates are at a 30 year high, financial obligations ratios are
at record low levels, and consumer debt markets have very low delinquency rates. Debt burdens on U.S. households are lower
now than they were in 2007 at the peak of the bubble or even in more normal 1998. Real estate has a close to record low debt-
to-equity ratio and, thanks to changes in banking regulations following the Great Recession, borrowers in the last decade have
had a median credit score above 750, the highest ever.
HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS RATE
FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS A % OF DPI
12
19
18.5
17.5
16.5
15.5
14.5
4
15
2
6
16
0
14
10
18
8
17
Ja
n
-
8
9
Ja
n
-
1
9
8
0
Ja
n
-
1
9
9
2
Ja
n
-
1
9
8
6
Ja
n
-
1
9
9
8
Ja
n
-
1
9
8
3
Ja
n
-
1
9
9
5
Ja
n
-
1
9
8
9
Ja
n
-
2
0
0
1
Ja
n
-
2
0
0
4
Ja
n
-
2
0
0
7
Ja
n
-
2
0
1
0
Ja
n
-
2
0
1
3
Ja
n
-
2
0
1
6
Ja
n
-
2
0
1
9
Ja
n
-
9
3
Ja
n
-
0
0
Ja
n
-
0
7
Ja
n
-
1
4
Ju
l
-
8
9
Fe
b
-
1
9
8
2
Fe
b
-
1
9
9
4
Fe
b
-
1
9
8
8
Fe
b
-
2
0
0
0
Fe
b
-
1
9
8
5
Fe
b
-
1
9
9
7
Fe
b
-
1
9
9
1
Fe
b
-
2
0
0
3
Fe
b
-
2
0
0
6
Fe
b
-
2
0
0
9
Fe
b
-
2
0
1
2
Fe
b
-
2
0
1
5
Fe
b
-
2
0
1
8
Ju
l
-
9
6
Ju
l
-
0
3
Ju
l
-
1
0
Ju
l
-
1
7
Ma
r
-
8
7
Ap
r
-
1
9
8
0
Ap
r
-
1
9
9
2
Ap
r
-
1
9
8
6
Ap
r
-
1
9
9
8
Ap
r
-
1
9
8
3
Ap
r
-
1
9
9
5
Ap
r
-
1
9
8
9
Ap
r
-
2
0
0
1
Ap
r
-
2
0
0
4
Ap
r
-
2
0
0
7
Ap
r
-
2
0
1
0
Ap
r
-
2
0
1
3
Ap
r
-
2
0
1
6
Ap
r
-
2
0
1
9
Ma
r
-
9
4
Ma
r
-
0
1
Ma
r
-
0
8
Ma
r
-
1
5
Se
p
-
9
0
Se
p
-
9
7
Se
p
-
0
4
Se
p
-
1
1
Se
p
-
1
8
Ma
y
-
8
8
Ma
r
-
1
9
8
1
Ma
r
-
1
9
9
3
Ma
r
-
1
9
8
7
Ma
r
-
1
9
9
9
Ma
r
-
1
9
8
4
Ma
r
-
1
9
9
6
Ma
r
-
1
9
9
0
Ma
r
-
2
0
0
2
Ma
r
-
2
0
0
5
Ma
r
-
2
0
0
8
Ma
r
-
2
0
1
1
Ma
r
-
2
0
1
4
Ma
r
-
2
0
1
7
Ma
y
-
9
5
Ma
y
-
0
2
Ma
y
-
0
9
Ma
y
-
1
6
No
v
-
9
1
No
v
-
9
8
No
v
-
0
5
No
v
-
1
3
No
v
-
1
2
No
v
-
1
9
%
%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Analysis by Beacon Economics
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve; Analysis by Beacon Economics
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 29
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
12
All Families
Percentile Income
Less than 20
20–39.9
40–59.9
60–79.9
80–89.9
90–100
RATIO OF DEBT PAYMENTS TO FAMILY INCOME
Family Characteristic
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve; Analysis by Beacon Economics
Median Share 40% Plus
1998
17.9
18.6
17.5
19.4
19.5
17.8
13.7
1998
13.6
29.8
18.3
15.9
9.8
3.5
2.8
2007
18.7
19.1
17.1
20.3
21.9
19.3
12.5
2007
14.8
26.9
19.5
14.5
12.9
8.2
3.8
2016
14.7
11.9
15.6
14.4
16.1
16.3
11.3
2016
9.1
21.6
13.3
8.3
4.2
4.2
1.5
Corporate debt as a share of U.S. GDP is at an all-time high level, but the ratio of corporate profits to GDP is also close to record
highs. And with such low interest rates, the aggregate debt burden on corporate America is actually quite low. The banking
sector has great leverage, has been lending conservatively, and is enjoying close to record low loan delinquencies and losses.
This is not a fragile economy.
DEBT AS SHARE OF GDP (%)
350
50
100
200
150
0.0
300
250
%
Source: FRED/U.S. Office of Management and Budget; Analysis by Beacon Economics
Federal All Else
Ja
n
-
1
9
6
6
Ja
n
-
1
9
8
5
Ja
n
-
2
0
0
4
Ma
r
-
1
9
6
9
Ma
r
-
1
9
8
8
Ma
r
-
2
0
0
7
Au
g
-
1
9
6
7
Au
g
-
1
9
8
6
Au
g
-
2
0
0
5
Oc
t
-
1
9
7
0
Oc
t
-
1
9
8
9
Oc
t
-
2
0
0
8
Ma
y
-
1
9
7
2
Ma
y
-
1
9
9
1
Ma
y
-
2
0
1
0
De
c
-
1
9
7
3
De
c
-
1
9
9
2
De
c
-
2
0
1
1
Ju
l
-
1
9
7
5
Ju
l
-
1
9
9
4
Ju
l
-
2
0
1
3
Fe
b
-
1
9
7
7
Fe
b
-
1
9
9
6
Fe
b
-
2
0
1
5
Se
p
-
1
9
7
8
Se
p
-
1
9
9
7
Se
p
-
2
0
1
6
Ap
r
-
1
9
8
0
Ap
r
-
1
9
9
9
Ap
r
-
2
0
1
8
No
v
-
1
9
8
1
No
v
-
2
0
0
0
Ju
n
-
1
9
8
3
Ju
n
-
2
0
0
2
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 30
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
13
There is no doubt that the 10 million plus people who are entering into unemployment will face a challenging period even with
expanded unemployment benefits and direct payments from the Federal government. Many small businesses are also being
pushed close to the edge as they wait to restart operations. But among much of the consuming public, savings rates are good,
debt burdens are low, and consumers are maintaining their earnings. For this group the inability to spend money during the
public health mandated shutdowns will lead to a surge in savings and significant pent up demand. While some households
will not be able to spend as much post-pandemic, others will likely spend considerably more than usual. The same applies to
businesses and investors.
All this does not suggest a “U”, but a very large and rapid “V”. The second quarter will definitely post record negatives, but
that will be followed by record positives in the last half of the year as we quickly return to normalcy. We see GDP growth as
follows: 0% in Q1, -30% in Q2, 25% in Q3, and 5% in Q4, with unemployment falling back to the low 4’s over the year. Not all of
the damage will be erased, but much of it will and things should largely return to normal faster than many expect. Indeed, we
may find that the second quarter will be the only negative growth quarter of the year, which will cause plenty of debate over
whether this was or wasn’t a true recession.
It is also worth discussing the chaos that overran the financial markets in recent weeks—led by the collapse in the equity
markets. The problems stemmed less from economic realities and more from financial improprieties. After the early 2019 sell
off, the market exploded upwards and at the start of this year, P/E ratios were at 31—the third highest on record, topped only in
the years 2000 and 1929, according to Robert Shiller’s index. Maybe it will ultimately be a positive that this bubble was popped
before it began to do harm in the broader economy. But the recent wild swings in the numbers cause havoc in short run debt
markets and put substantial, unnecessary strain on an economy dealing with a very real pandemic.
IT LOOKS LIKE A “V”
COMMERCIAL BANK DELINQUENCIES
12
2
6
4
0
10
8
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; Analysis by Beacon Economics
Real Estate ConsumerC&I LoansAgricultural Loans
Q1
-
8
9
Q1
-
9
1
Q1
-
9
5
Q1
-
9
3
Q1
-
9
7
Q1
-
9
9
Q1
-
0
1
Q1
-
0
9
Q1
-
0
5
Q1
-
1
3
Q1
-
1
7
Q1
-
0
3
Q1
-
1
1
Q1
-
0
7
Q1
-
1
5
Q1
-
1
9
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 31
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
14
The Fed has now injected trillions of dollars into short term credit markets, but it looks like much of the panic has already
passed. Credit markets are settling down and the economy will, in the short term at least, enjoy record low interest rates along
with lower gas prices and all the other benefits that come from falling commodity prices. This will also help with the third
quarter bounce.
The larger question, however, is at what point will regulators finally begin to seriously address the excessive volatility of the
financial markets over the last decade? The markets are supposed to be the shock absorber for the U.S. economy, but have
turned into a shock expander.
While we believe that the most likely outcome for the U.S. economy is better than what most forecasts are currently suggesting,
we must also be humble in the face of such an unprecedented shock. In this case there are two major wildcards. The first, of
course, is the virus itself. They are wily things and can take strange and unanticipated twists and turns. If the spread of the
Coronavirus should spiral out of control again, public health mandates will once again take over and more damage will be
done. But even in such a case, public response should be faster and more forceful the second time around, allowing us to
weather the storm better. The global population has experienced a big learning curve and we are likely to continue behaving
vigilantly, which will help limit negative outcomes.
The second wildcard is whether there will be a dramatic shift in consumer behavior after the pandemic ends. Certainly, people
will wash their hands more often and handshakes may well become a thing of the past, but will consumers stop going to
ballgames and music festivals? Will they be too afraid to go to restaurants? We can’t really know, but it is worth noting that for
hundreds of years people have faced pandemics that were far deadlier and more frightening than this one because they didn’t
have the science or the medical responses we have today. Nevertheless, when there weren’t pandemics, or they ended, people
continued living active lives. Even during wartime, or in places that are under constant threat of terrorist or other attack,
people don’t allow low odds to halt their enjoyment of life. This is not a new normal—it is a return to one that has been with
us for a long time.
While we believe a “V” recovery is ahead, we say so very cautiously, and hope the false narrative that the ‘cure is worse than
the disease’ is not allowed to push us off our current path.
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 32
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
Economic and Revenue Forecasting
Economic, Fiscal and Social Impact Analysis
Regional and Sub-Regional Analysis
Housing, Land Use and Real Estate Advisory
Litigation and Testimony
Sustainable Growth and Development
www.BeaconEcon.com
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 33
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
Update on California’sPandemic Roadmap
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 34
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
•Ability to test, contact trace, isolate, and support the exposed
•Ability to protect those at high risk for COVID-19
•Surge capacity for hospital and health systems
•Therapeutic development to meet the demand
•Ability of businesses, schools, and childcare facilities to support physical distancing
•Determination of when to reinstitute measures like Stay-At-Home
6 Indicators for Modifying Stay-at-Home Order
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 35
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Total Hospitalized Total ICU
California Hospitalization Trend Lines
Total includes both COVID-19 confirmed positive hospitalizations as well as COVID-19 suspect hospitalizations.
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 36
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
COVID-19 is not going away soon.
The Basics
Modifications to Stay-At-Home Order must be guided
by health risk and a commitment to equity.
Taking responsibility is key at all levels – individual,
business, and government.
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 37
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
STAGE 1:
Safety and
Preparedness
Making essential
workforce
environment as
safe as possible.
Resilience Roadmap Stages
STAGE 2:
Lower Risk
Workplaces
Creating
opportunities for
lower risk sectors
to adapt and
re-open.
Modified school
programs and
childcare re-open.
STAGE 3:
Higher Risk
Workplaces
Creating
opportunities for
higher risk sectors to
adapt and re-open.
STAGE 4:
End of Stay-At-
Home Order
Return to expanded
workforce in highest
risk workplaces.
Requires
Therapeutics.
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 38
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
This is where we are now.
•Continue to build out testing, contact tracing, PPE, and hospital
surge capacity.
•Continue to make essential workplaces as safe as possible.
•Physical and work flow adaption
•Essential workforce safety net
•Make PPE more widely available
•Individual behavior changes
•Prepare sector-by-sector safety guidelines for expanded workforce.
Stage 1: Safety and Preparedness
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 39
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
Stage 2: Lower Risk Workplaces
Gradually opening some lower risk workplaces
with ADAPTATIONS:
○Retail (e.g. curbside pickup)
○Manufacturing
○Offices (when telework not possible)
○Opening more public spaces
Expanded Workforce Safety Net:
●Wage replacement so workers can stay home when sick
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 40
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
Stage 2: Lower Risk Workplaces
Schools and Childcare Facilities with Adaptations:
●Summer programs and next school year potentially starting
sooner (July/August)
●Childcare facilities to provide more care
●Address learning gaps
●Ensure students and staff are protected
●Allow broader workforce to return to work
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 41
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
Government Actions
●Policies that allow people to stay home when they’re sick
●Guidance provided on how to reduce risk
Actions needed to get from Stage 1 to Stage 2
Business Actions
●Wage replacement so workers can stay home when sick
●Implement adaptations to lower-risk workplaces NOW
●Employees continue to work from home when possible
Individual Actions
●Safety precautions –physical distancing, face coverings, etc.
●Avoid all non-essential travel
●Support and care for people who are at high risk
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 42
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
When are we ready for Stage 2?
Key indicator considerations to move to Stage 2:
•Hospitalization and ICU trends stable.
•Hospital surge capacity to meet demand.
•Sufficient PPE supply to meet demand.
•Sufficient testing capacity to meet demand.
•Contact tracing capacity statewide.
Transition to Stage 2 will occur through a statewide
modification to the Stay-At-Home Order.
.
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 43
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
Opportunity for Regional Variations
During Stage 2, counties may choose to relax stricter local orders at their own pace.
Following Stage 2, once a statewide COVID-19 surveillance system is made possible through testing, further regional variations could be supported.
State will consult and collaborate closely with local governments.
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 44
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
Stage 3: Higher Risk Workplaces
Open higher risk environments with
adaptations and limits on size of
gatherings:
•Personal care
(hair and nail salons, gyms)
•Entertainment venues (movie
theaters, sports without live
audiences)
•In-person religious services
(churches, weddings)
Stage 4: End of
Stay-At-Home Order
Re-open highest risk workplaces with all
indicators satisfied once therapeutics
have been developed:
•Concerts
•Convention Centers
•Live audience sports
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 45
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
Stay Home. Practice Physical Distancing.
We are enlisting all Californians to help inform the
development of guidance for sectors across our
economy.
This guidance will provide a framework for how to safely
re-open.
Be Part of the Solution
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 46
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
covid19.ca.gov
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 47
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
GENERAL FUND
ENHANCED REVENUE: ______________________
Proposed Budget Reduction # _____
DEPARTMENT: ______________________
FY 2019-20 GENERAL FUND SAVINGS: ________________
FY 2020-21 GENERAL FUND SAVINGS: ________________
SERVICE LEVEL IMPACTS:
OTHER IMPACTS:
OTHER COMMENTS
STAFFING IMPACTS
Position Labor Allocation:
POSITION: ____________________
_________________________________________________________
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 48
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
GENERAL FUND
REDUCTION PROPOSED: ______________________
Proposed Budget Reduction # _____
DEPARTMENT: ______________________
FY 2019-20 GENERAL FUND SAVINGS: ________________
FY 2020-21 GENERAL FUND SAVINGS: ________________
SERVICE LEVEL IMPACTS:
OTHER IMPACTS:
OTHER COMMENTS
STAFFING IMPACTS
Position Labor Allocation:
POSITION: ____________________
_________________________________________________________
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 49
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
GENERAL FUND
REDUCTION PROPOSED: ______________________
Proposed Budget Reduction # _____
DEPARTMENT: ______________________
FY 2019-20 GENERAL FUND SAVINGS: ________________
FY 2020-21 GENERAL FUND SAVINGS: ________________
SERVICE LEVEL IMPACTS:
OTHER IMPACTS:
OTHER COMMENTS
STAFFING IMPACTS
Position Labor Allocation:
POSITION: ____________________
_________________________________________________________
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 50
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
GENERAL FUND
REDUCTION PROPOSED: ______________________
Proposed Budget Reduction # _____
DEPARTMENT: ______________________
FY 2019-20 GENERAL FUND SAVINGS: ________________
FY 2020-21 GENERAL FUND SAVINGS: ________________
SERVICE LEVEL IMPACTS:
OTHER IMPACTS:
OTHER COMMENTS
STAFFING IMPACTS
Position Labor Allocation:
POSITION: ____________________
_________________________________________________________
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 51
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
GENERAL FUND
REDUCTION PROPOSED: ______________________
Proposed Budget Reduction # _____
DEPARTMENT: ______________________
FY 2019-20 GENERAL FUND SAVINGS: ________________
FY 2020-21 GENERAL FUND SAVINGS: ________________
SERVICE LEVEL IMPACTS:
OTHER IMPACTS:
OTHER COMMENTS
STAFFING IMPACTS
Position Labor Allocation:
POSITION: ____________________
_________________________________________________________
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 52
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
GENERAL FUND
REDUCTION PROPOSED: ______________________
Proposed Budget Reduction # _____
DEPARTMENT: ______________________
FY 2019-20 GENERAL FUND SAVINGS: ________________
FY 2020-21 GENERAL FUND SAVINGS: ________________
SERVICE LEVEL IMPACTS:
OTHER IMPACTS:
OTHER COMMENTS
STAFFING IMPACTS
Position Labor Allocation:
POSITION: ____________________
_________________________________________________________
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 53
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
GENERAL FUND
REDUCTION PROPOSED: ______________________
Proposed Budget Reduction # _____
DEPARTMENT: ______________________
FY 2019-20 GENERAL FUND SAVINGS: ________________
FY 2020-21 GENERAL FUND SAVINGS: ________________
SERVICE LEVEL IMPACTS:
OTHER IMPACTS:
OTHER COMMENTS
STAFFING IMPACTS
Position Labor Allocation:
POSITION: ____________________
_________________________________________________________
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 54
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
GENERAL FUND
REDUCTION PROPOSED: ______________________
Proposed Budget Reduction # _____
DEPARTMENT: ______________________
FY 2019-20 GENERAL FUND SAVINGS: ________________
FY 2020-21 GENERAL FUND SAVINGS: ________________
SERVICE LEVEL IMPACTS:
OTHER IMPACTS:
OTHER COMMENTS
STAFFING IMPACTS
Position Labor Allocation:
POSITION: ____________________
_________________________________________________________
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 55
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
GENERAL FUND
REDUCTION PROPOSED: ______________________
Proposed Budget Reduction # _____
DEPARTMENT: ______________________
FY 2019-20 GENERAL FUND SAVINGS: ________________
FY 2020-21 GENERAL FUND SAVINGS: ________________
SERVICE LEVEL IMPACTS:
OTHER IMPACTS:
OTHER COMMENTS
STAFFING IMPACTS
Position Labor Allocation:
POSITION: ____________________
_________________________________________________________
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 56
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
GENERAL FUND
REDUCTION PROPOSED: ______________________
Proposed Budget Reduction # _____
DEPARTMENT: ______________________
FY 2019-20 GENERAL FUND SAVINGS: ________________
FY 2020-21 GENERAL FUND SAVINGS: ________________
SERVICE LEVEL IMPACTS:
OTHER IMPACTS:
OTHER COMMENTS
STAFFING IMPACTS
Position Labor Allocation:
POSITION: ____________________
_________________________________________________________
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 57
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
GENERAL FUND
REDUCTION PROPOSED: ______________________
Proposed Budget Reduction # _____
DEPARTMENT: ______________________
FY 2019-20 GENERAL FUND SAVINGS: ________________
FY 2020-21 GENERAL FUND SAVINGS: ________________
SERVICE LEVEL IMPACTS:
OTHER IMPACTS:
OTHER COMMENTS
STAFFING IMPACTS
Position Labor Allocation:
POSITION: ____________________
_________________________________________________________
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 58
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
GENERAL FUND
REDUCTION PROPOSED: ______________________
Proposed Budget Reduction # _____
DEPARTMENT: ______________________
FY 2019-20 GENERAL FUND SAVINGS: ________________
FY 2020-21 GENERAL FUND SAVINGS: ________________
SERVICE LEVEL IMPACTS:
OTHER IMPACTS:
OTHER COMMENTS
STAFFING IMPACTS
Position Labor Allocation:
POSITION: ____________________
_________________________________________________________
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 59
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
GENERAL FUND
REDUCTION PROPOSED: ______________________
Proposed Budget Reduction # _____
DEPARTMENT: ______________________
FY 2019-20 GENERAL FUND SAVINGS: ________________
FY 2020-21 GENERAL FUND SAVINGS: ________________
SERVICE LEVEL IMPACTS:
OTHER IMPACTS:
OTHER COMMENTS
STAFFING IMPACTS
Position Labor Allocation:
POSITION: ____________________
_________________________________________________________
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 60
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
City of Grand Terrace
Inter-departmental Memorandum
City Manager’s Office
____________________________________________________________________________
DATE: August 6, 2019
TO: Mayor and City Council
FROM: G. Harold Duffey, City Manager Cynthia Fortune, Assistant City Manager
SUBJECT: PRIORITY PROJECTS FOR 2019-2020 AS APPROVED BY CITY COUNCIL AT
ITS SPECIAL MEETING WORKSHOP DATED JUNE 12, 2019
____________________________________________________________________________
The City Manager’s Office has multiple business lines and while our resources are limited, we
continue to allocate our resources to achieve maximum returns in the following areas:
• Economic Development
• Efficient Services to Citizens
• Code Enforcement to Maintain the Community’s Quality of Life
• Sustainability of the Organization
While the City Manager will be responsible to ensure all departments adhere to priorities as
supported by the City Council, the City Manager’s Office will also ensure the alignment of priorities
based on its various business lines. The City Manager’s priorities will be based on alignment with
the City Manager’s 2030 Vision Implementation Plan Phase II and the annual budget approved
by City Council. The four categories of ranking used to prioritize the projects are:
1. Economic Development (40%)
2. Funding and Resources (25%)
3. Approved Council’s Future Agenda Item Requests (20%)
4. Quality of Life (15%).
Priority projects are categorized as “A” Top Priority, “B” High Priority and “C” Priority.
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 61
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
Memo to Mayor and City Council Page 2 of 4
City Manager Office Priority Projects for 2019-2020
Economic Development
CM – Committees & Commissions
“A” Top Priority “B” High Priority “C” Priority
Return to City Council with Options to Delegate Rec and Youth Commission
Return to City Council with Options to Delegate Special Event Support
CM – Human Resources
“A” Top Priority “B” High Priority “C” Priority Benefits & Recognition Program Annual Events for Employees
Annual Evaluation & Merit Increases (Reinstated) Council & City Staff Social Events
Employee Appreciation
Program
Review of Health and
Compensation
“A” Top Priority “B” High Priority “C” Priority
Development of 4.78 Acres on Barton Rd. San Bernardino County Child Care Facility Development on City Center Dr.
Gateway Specific Plan Pit Stop Development Cage Park
Taco Bell La Crosse Development Rails to Trails Grant to Access Santa Ana River Grocery Outlet Stater Bros. Expansion Walgreens Center Expansion
Surgical Center Storm Drainage Michigan
Mr. TV Video RDA Lot 0.80 Acre Development
Kaz Ramen Coffee Richardson’s RV
Hollywood Video Conversion
Edwin Fuels
Fire Station Agreement TOT Tax Implementation
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 62
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
Memo to Mayor and City Council Page 3 of 4
Finance & Senior Center Development
“A” Top Priority “B” High Priority “C” Priority
Review of Business License Fee Finance Department Staff Re-Organization
Housing Agency Programs Review of Cost-Effective
Health Benefits
Increase in Senior Center Services
City Clerk’s Office Priority Projects 2019-2020
“A” Top Priority “B” High Priority “C” Priority FPPC Compliance Scanning Increase Content of Intranet Records Destruction
Telephone System Improvements City Clerk’s Department Operations
Technology Program – Tablet Use Increase Awareness of Online Public Material
Research Use of Facebook Live and Twitter Increase Participation in City Council Meeting Invocations
City Adopted Budgets and Agenda Packets Placed in Library
Lighting in City Council Chamber
Develop Community Posting Board City Hall Information Kiosks
Manage City Neighborhood Recognition Programs City Council Chamber Reception Area Upgrade
Manage Annual Acknowledgment Program
City Council Agenda
Modifications
Public Works Priority Projects 2019-2020
“A” Top Priority “B” High Priority “C” Priority Highway Safety Improvement Program – Mt. Vernon
Intersections
Highway Safety Improvement Program Cycle 9 Guardrail Park Enhancements
Fitness Park Canopy Small Cell Site Infrastructure
Plan
Preston Signal Upgrade Parking City Wide Strategy
Commerce Way Expansion Utility Pole Undergrounding Master Plan
Mt. Vernon Slope Stabilization West Barton Bridge Replacement
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 63
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
Memo to Mayor and City Council Page 4 of 4
EV Charging Station Support for Community Events
Year 3 CIP Fee Study
Barton Interchange Maintenance Agreement
Barton Speed Feedback Development Plans
Fire Station Roof Repair
Public Works Maintenance Priority Projects 2019-2020
“A” Top Priority “B” High Priority “C” Priority
Traffic Signal/Street Light Storm Drain/Channel
Street, Sidewalk, Curb, Parkway City Facilities
Parks City Neighborhood Lighting Plan
Street Sign Replacement Program
Planning & Development Services Priority Projects 2019-2020
“A” Top Priority “B” High Priority “C” Priority
4.78 Acres – PSA, Entitlements Housing Authority Report Grant ATP – Close Out
Amend Master Plan Zoning Around Schools Sign Code
Edwin Fuels Noticing Policy Van Buren – Aegis
Gateway SP Barton Road Streetscape Crestwood
Anita – Grocery Outlet Sign Michigan Street – Complete Street
Grant Prop 68 B&S RFP
Taco Bell Housing Element RFP Mr. TV Video Parking Program Canal – Aegis
Project in 40-Acre Greenbelt Grand Terrace Road – Aegis Blue Mountain Trail Grant Safety Element Update Animal Control Ordinance Update Housing Element Update
Parking Citation Appeals CUP in 40-Acre Greenbelt La Cadena SFR
REC Center
National Logistics
Surgical Center
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 64
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
U.S. Department of Labor
Wage and Hour Division
September 2019
Fact Sheet #70: Frequently Asked Questions Regarding Furloughs and Other Reductions in Pay and Hours Worked Issues
The Department of Labor’s (DOL) Wage and Hour Division (WHD) is responsible for administering
and enforcing some of our nation's most comprehensive labor laws, including the minimum wage, overtime, recordkeeping, and youth employment provisions of the Fair Labor Standards Act
(FLSA).
The following information is intended to answer some of the most frequently asked questions that have arisen when private and public employers require employees to take furloughs and to take other
reductions in pay and / or hours worked as businesses and State and local governments adjust to economic challenges.
1. If an employer is having trouble meeting payroll, do they need to pay non-exempt
employees on the regular payday?
In general, an employer must pay covered non-exempt employees the full minimum wage and any statutory overtime due on the regularly scheduled pay day for the workweek in question. Failure to
do so constitutes a violation of the FLSA. When the correct amount of overtime compensation cannot be determined until sometime after the regular pay period, however, the requirements of the FLSA will be satisfied if the employer pays the excess overtime compensation as soon after the regular pay
period as is practicable.
2. Is it legal for an employer to reduce the wages or number of hours of an hourly employee?
The FLSA requires that all covered non-exempt employees receive at least the applicable Federal
minimum wage for all hours worked. In a week in which employees work overtime, they must receive their regular rate of pay and overtime pay at a rate not less than one and one-half times the regular rate of pay for all overtime hours. The Act does not preclude an employer from lowering an employee's hourly rate, provided the rate paid is at least the minimum wage, or from reducing the
number of hours the employee is scheduled to work.
3. Does an employer need to pay an hourly employee for a full day of work if he or she was
scheduled for a full day but only worked a partial day due to lack of work?
The FLSA does not require employers to pay non-exempt employees for hours they did not work.
4. In general, can an employer reduce an otherwise exempt employee’s salary due to a
slowdown in business?
Reductions in the predetermined salary of an employee who is exempt under Part 541 of the
Department of Labor's regulations will ordinarily cause a loss of the exemption. Such an employee
FS 70
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 65
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
must then be paid at least the federal minimum wage and overtime pay required by the FLSA, as discussed in FAQ #2 above. In some circumstances, however, a prospective reduction in salary may not cause a loss of the exemption. See FAQ #7 below.
Section 13(a)(1) of the FLSA exempts from minimum wage and overtime pay "any employee employed in a bona fide executive, administrative, or professional capacity" as defined in 29 C.F.R.
541. An employee qualifies for exemption if the duties and salary tests are met. See Fact Sheet
#17A.
FLSA section 13(a)(1) requires payment of at least $684* per week on a "salary" basis for those employed as exempt executive, administrative, or professional employees. See Fact Sheet #17G. A
salary is a predetermined amount constituting all or part of the employee's compensation, which is not subject to reduction because of variations in the quality or quantity of the work performed. Beginning January 1, 2020, employers may use nondiscretionary bonuses and incentive payments (including commissions) paid on an annual or more frequent basis, to satisfy up to 10 percent of the
standard salary level.
An employer must pay an exempt employee the full predetermined salary amount "free and clear" for any week in which the employee performs any work without regard to the number of days or hours
worked. However, there is no requirement that the predetermined salary be paid if the employee performs no work for an entire workweek. Deductions may not be made from the employee's predetermined salary for absences occasioned by the employer or by the operating requirements of the business. If the employee is ready, willing, and able to work, deductions may not be made for time when work is not available. Salary deductions are generally not permissible if the employee
works less than a full day. Except for certain limited exceptions found in 29 C.F.R. 541.602(b)(1)-(7),
salary deductions result in loss of the section 13(a)(1) exemption.
Deductions from the pay of an employee of a public agency for absences due to a budget-required
furlough disqualify the employee from being paid on a salary basis only in the workweek when the furlough occurs and for which the pay is accordingly reduced under 29 C.F.R. 541.710. See FAQ #9
below.
Physicians, lawyers, outside salespersons, or teachers in bona fide educational institutions are not subject to any salary requirements. Deductions from the salary or pay of such employees will not result in loss of the exemption.
5. Can an employer reduce the leave of a salaried exempt employee?
An employer can substitute or reduce an exempt employee's accrued leave (or run a negative leave balance) for the time an employee is absent from work, even if it is less than a full day and even if the
absence is directed by the employer because of lack of work, without affecting the salary basis payment, provided that the employee still receives payment equal to the employee's predetermined salary in any week in which any work is performed even if the employee has no leave remaining.
6. Can a salaried exempt employee volunteer to take time off of work due to lack of work?
If the employer seeks volunteers to take time off due to insufficient work, and the exempt employee volunteers to take the day(s) off for personal reasons, other than sickness or disability, salary
deductions may be made for one or more full days of missed work. The employee's decision must be completely voluntary.
7. Can an employer make prospective reduction in pay for a salaried exempt employee due to
the economic downturn?
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 66
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
An employer is not prohibited from prospectively reducing the predetermined salary amount to be paid regularly to a Part 541 exempt employee during a business or economic slowdown, provided the change is bona fide and not used as a device to evade the salary basis requirements. Such a predetermined regular salary reduction, not related to the quantity or quality of work performed, will not
result in loss of the exemption, as long as the employee still receives on a salary basis at least $684* per week. On the other hand, deductions from predetermined pay occasioned by day-to-day or week-
to-week determinations of the operating requirements of the business constitute impermissible deductions from the predetermined salary and would result in loss of the exemption. The difference is
that the first instance involves a prospective reduction in the predetermined pay to reflect the long term business needs, rather than a short-term, day-to-day or week-to-week deduction from the fixed salary for absences from scheduled work occasioned by the employer or its business operations.
8. Can an employee still be on-call or performing work at home during a furlough day?
Whether on-call time is hours worked under the FLSA depends upon the particular circumstances.
Generally, the facts may show that the employee was engaged to wait (which is work time) or the
facts may show that the employee was waiting to be engaged (which is not work time).
For example, a secretary who reads a book while waiting for dictation or a fireman who plays checkers while waiting for an alarm is working during such periods of inactivity. These employees
have been "engaged to wait." An employee who is required to remain on call on the employer's premises is working while "on call." An employee who is allowed to leave a message where he/she can be reached is not working (in most cases) while on call. Additional constraints on the employee's freedom could require this time to be compensated.
Employees who perform part or all of their normal job duties during a furlough day are working while
performing such duties.
9. Are the rules for paying furloughed employees different for State and local governments?
For non-exempt public employees, see FAQ #2.
For salaried exempt employees, in the case of public sector employees, a specific rule applies to furloughs as described in the following regulatory text, 29 C.F.R. 541.710:
Deductions from the pay of an employee of a public agency for absences due to a
budget-required furlough shall not disqualify the employee from being paid on a salary
basis except in the workweek in which the furlough occurs and for which the employee's pay is accordingly reduced.
10. Does it matter if the State or local government employee is considered an essential or
critical employee for the purposes of a required furlough?
The application of the FLSA is not affected by the classification of an employee as essential or critical for the purposes of a required furlough.
11. What remedies are available to correct violations of the FLSA when employees are not
paid on a timely basis?
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 67
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
a. The Secretary of Labor may bring suit for back wages and an equal amount as liquidated damages or for interest on the back wages, or the Secretary of Labor may bring suit for an injunction against the failure to pay wages when due.
b. Employees who have filed complaints or provided information during an investigation are protected under the law. They may not be discriminated against or discharged for having done so. If they are, they may file a suit or the Secretary of Labor may file a suit on their behalf for relief, including reinstatement to their jobs and payment of wages lost plus monetary damages.
c. An employee may file suit to recover back wages, and an equal amount in liquidated damages, plus attorney's fees and court costs. Please note that the U.S. Supreme Court has ruled that
the Eleventh Amendment prohibits employees of State governments from filing such suits against their State employers for monetary relief in federal courts (under Seminole Tribe of Florida v. Florida, 517 U.S. 44 (1996)), and in State courts unless the State waives its sovereign immunity (under Alden v. Maine, 527 U.S. 706 (1999)).
d. Civil money penalties may be assessed for repeat and / or willful violations of the FLSA's minimum wage or overtime requirements.
e. Employers willfully violating the law also may face criminal penalties, including fines and
imprisonment.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
The Wage and Hour Division is available to assist. For more information regarding the FLSA,
visit the WHD Web site at www.wagehour.dol.gov or call our toll-free help line, available 8 a.m. to
5 p.m. in your time zone, at 1-866-4US-WAGE (1-866-487-9243). When state law differs from the federal FLSA, an employer must comply with the standard most
protective to employees. Links to your state labor department can be found at www.dol.gov/contacts/state_of.htm.
This publication is for general information and is not to be considered in the same light as official
statements of position contained in the regulations. *Note: The Department of Labor revised the regulations located at 29 C.F.R. part 541 with an effective date of
January 1, 2020. The 2004 part 541 regulations will remain in effect through December 31, 2019, including the $455 per week standard salary level and $100,000 annual compensation level for Highly Compensated Employees. The final rule is available at: https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2019/09/27/2019-20353/defining-and-delimiting-the-exemptions-for-executive-administrative-professional-outside-sales-and.
C.2.a
Packet Pg. 68
At
t
a
c
h
m
e
n
t
:
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
n
d
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
R
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
P
l
a
n
#
1
(
F
Y
2
0
1
9
-
2
0
P
r
o
p
o
s
e
d
R
e
v
e
n
u
e
E
n
h
a
n
c
e
m
e
n
t
s
&
E
x
p
e
n
d
i
t
u
r
e
AGENDA REPORT
MEETING DATE: May 6, 2020 Council Item
TITLE: FY2020-21 Budget Development Guidelines and Budget
Schedule
PRESENTED BY: Cynthia Fortune, Assistant City Manager
RECOMMENDATION: Approve the FY2020-21 Budget Development Guidelines
and Proposed Budget Review Schedule.
2030 VISION STATEMENT:
This staff report supports City Council Goal #1, “Ensure Our Fiscal Viability,” through
the continuous monitoring of revenue receipts and expenditure disbursements against
approved budget appropriations.
BACKGROUND and DISCUSSION:
To ensure City Council is in agreement with the process for developing the FY2020-21
budget, and the schedule leading up to budget adoption, the following budget
development guidelines and review schedule are proposed for City Council’s approval.
Budget Development Guidelines
The following guidelines are submitted for the City Council’s review and approval. If
approved, they will be utilized in the development of the FY 2020-21 Budget:
• Due to the uncertainty of the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic, City staff will
be submitting a one-year budget for FY2020-21 instead of a two-year budget as
was done in the prior two years.
• Departments will submit base budgets that reflect the change in staffing as a
result of the Declaration of Fiscal Emergency.
• Personnel budgets will be developed by the Finance Department based on the
results of the Declaration of Fiscal Emergency, should personnel reductions
occur and be approved by City Council.
• Should there be a need for any new personnel requests or increase in services
as required to help mitigate the General Fund deficit, these must be supported by
revenue sources and/or funding.
C.3
Packet Pg. 69
• A general inflation factor should not be applied to contractual services or
maintenance & operations line items unless multi-year contracts are in place that
provide for inflationary adjustments.
• All contracts will be reviewed to either reduce or eliminate said services if
possible; even in such cases, departments should make every effort to
renegotiate pricing to maintain expenditures at their lowest levels.
• Any proposed service level enhancements or staffing additions must be
submitted for consideration as a New Budget Request, along with
comprehensive justification.
• Any New Budget Request items that are supported by the City Manager will be
separately identified in the Proposed Budget, rather than being incorporated in
the base budget. This approach will enable City Council to individually review
and approve/disapprove each item that is being proposed.
• Capital Assets (assets with an initial cost of $5,000 or greater and an estimated
useful life of at least two years) that are proposed for replacement must be
separately identified through a Capital Asset Replacement Request form. Any
such requested replacements will be separately identified in the Proposed
Budget, rather than being incorporated in the base budget. This approach will
enable the City Council to individually review and approve/disapprove each item
that is being proposed.
• When considering a potential Capital Asset replacement, departments should
make every effort to extend the useful life and keep the asset in service longer if
it may be safely operated and is cost-effective to do so considering expected
maintenance and repair costs.
• Any proposed service level or staffing reductions will be separately identified,
along with the corresponding cost savings and service level impact, in the
Proposed Budget, rather than being incorporated in the base budget. This
approach will enable the City Council to individually review and approve/
disapprove each item that is being considered.
• Following budget deliberations on the Proposed Budget, including potential
additions and/or reductions to the base budget, the budget will be adopted by the
City Council prior to the start of the new fiscal year (July 1, 2020).
Preliminary Projections for FY2020-21
As provided in a previous report, preliminary projections for FY2020-21 were provided
to City Council as shown in the table below:
City of Grand Terrace
C.3
Packet Pg. 70
FY2019-2020 Year-End Projection and 2020-21 Possible Scenarios
Budget
Projected
Adjustments
Year-End
Projection
Exp
%
Year-
End
Proj
Projection-1
2020-21
Exp
%
Year-
End
Proj
Projection-2
2020-21
Exp
%
Year-
End
Proj
REVENUES
Property Tax $1,971,250 ($79,990) $1,891,260 -4% $1,796,000 -9% $1,478,440 -25%
Residual Receipts
- RPTTF $1,442,400 $610 $1,443,010 0% $1,500,000 4% $1,081,800 -25%
Franchise Fees $534,790 ($97,260) $437,530 -18% $445,000 -17% $401,100 -25%
Licenses, Fees &
Permits $456,510 ($127,420) $329,090 -28% $329,090 -28% $342,400 -25%
Sales Tax $785,400 ($185,370) $600,030 -24% $600,000 -24% $589,050 -25%
Intergovernmental
Revenue/Grants $26,500 ($2,790) $23,710 -11% $20,000 -25% $19,880 -25%
Charges for
Services $207,900 ($127,600) $80,300 -61% $80,300 -61% $155,940 -25%
Fines &
Forfeitures $72,500 ($20,410) $52,090 -28% $35,100 -52% $54,380 -25%
Miscellaneous $15,148 ($14,638) $510 -97% $0 $11,360 -25%
Use of Money &
Property $62,000 $4,740 $66,740 8% $47,500 -23% $46,500 -25%
Transfers In $84,450 $0 $84,450 0% $0 $63,340 -25%
Wastewater
Receipts $318,349 $1 $318,350 0% $318,350 0% $238,760 -25%
TOTAL
REVENUES $5,977,197 ($650,127) $5,327,070 -11% $5,171,340 -13% $4,482,950 -25%
EXPENDITURES
Salaries $1,246,881 $10,129 $1,257,010 -1% $1,257,030 1% $1,257,030 1%
Benefits $842,690 ($15,420) $827,270 2% $827,290 -2% $827,290 -2%
Professional/Cont.
Services $3,463,996 ($133,266) $3,330,730 4% $3,330,690 -4% $3,330,690 -4%
Materials &
Supplies $236,217 $19,523 $255,740 -8% $255,730 8% $255,730 8%
Lease of
Facility/Equipment $8,000 $11,320 $19,320 <100% $19,320 <100% $19,320 <100%
Utilities $145,000 ($1,140) $143,860 1% $143,860 -1% $143,860 -1%
Overhead Cost
Allocation ($87,450) $0 ($87,450) 0% ($87,450) 0% ($87,450) 0%
Transfers Out $125,800 $0 $125,800 0% $125,800 0% $125,800 0%
TOTAL
EXPENDITURES $5,981,134 ($108,854) $5,872,280 2% $5,872,270 -2% $5,872,270 -2%
REVENUE & EXPENDITURE SUMMARY
REVENUES $5,977,197 ($650,127) $5,327,070 -11% $5,171,340 -13% $4,482,950 -25%
EXPENDITURES ($5,981,134) $108,854 ($5,872,280) 2% ($5,872,270) -2% ($5,872,270) -2%
NET ($3,937) ($541,273) ($545,210) ($700,930) ($1,389,320)
Additional Expenditures to consider in FY2020-21
C.3
Packet Pg. 71
City of Grand Terrace
FY2019-2020 Year-End Projection and 2020-21 Possible Scenarios
Budget
Projected
Adjustments
Year-End
Projection
Exp
%
Year-
End
Proj
Projection-1
2020-21
Exp
%
Year-
End
Proj
Projection-2
2020-21
Exp
%
Year-
End
Proj
1. Sheriff's Amendment #27 (“Schedule A” increase) ($136,457) ($136,457)
2. Absorption of former Child Care program's Unfunded Accrued
Liability (UAL) portion ($150k) & overall UAL increase ($30k) ($185,000) ($185,000)
3. Annual Debt Service payment to Wastewater Fund for
$900,000 Loan ($108,000) ($108,000)
POTENTIAL DEFICIT ($1,130,387) ($1,818,777)
Given the immediate severity of this economic crisis as a result of the approved
Declaration of a Fiscal Emergency due to COVID-19, any recommendations submitted
by the City Manager and approved by City Council that are intended to mitigate the
fiscal impact to the City's FY2019-20 and FY2020-21 budgets, and will be reflected in
the FY2020-21 Proposed Budget. Such measures may include:
1. Reduction in personnel costs;
2. Reduction in operations; and/or
3. Reduction in service levels.
Tentative Budget Review Schedule
Following is the tentative schedule for City Council review, deliberation and adoption of
the FY2020-21 Budget:
Table 1
FY2020-21 Proposed Budget Review Schedule Date
CITY COUNCIL MEETING: Presentation of Proposed Budget
to City Council Tue – May 26, 2018
CITY COUNCIL MEETING: Budget Deliberations; Approval of
the City’s FY2020-21 Appropriations Limits Tue - June 9, 2020
CITY COUNCIL MEETING: Budget Adoption Tue - June 23, 2020
APPROVALS:
Cynthia A. Fortune Completed 05/02/2020 3:53 PM
Finance Completed 05/05/2020 9:38 AM
City Attorney Completed 05/05/2020 10:55 AM
City Manager Completed 05/05/2020 5:13 PM
City Council Pending 05/06/2020 6:00 PM
C.3
Packet Pg. 72